538新出的这份F1车手Elo分数排名我们怎么看?

时间:2019-01-19   点击: 次   字体:【

和围棋的那个世界ELO排名准确性差远了,围棋结果输赢即代表实力,而赛车手的积分受其他因素影响太多了,不科学取最好的5年明显这5年车都不错的排比较前所以排名很大程度是排车,不科学取最好的5年明显这5年车都不错的排比较前所以排名很大程度是排车,削弱车的影响的方法有很多种,这个方法是最不可取的等我找几篇论文来,嗯,这个问题方法里也说了,不过话说回来这种排名是不可能排除车的因素的,不然只能得到一个非常主观的结论。2018赛季还没完呢也算?这个就是比谁开的火星车多Coulthard和Patrese是典型例子。

这个就是比谁开的火星车多Coulthard和Patrese是典型例子。

还是之前谁发的队友对比排名那个比较偏车手。

发一下统计方法,方便不能幡墙的车迷,但是更多车手的数据和比较就没办法了只能进网站看MethodologyUnlikemostothersportswhereFiveThirtyEightusesElo,FormulaOneisnotahead-to-headsport;multipledriverstaketothecircuitatthesametimeorinthesamesession,andtheresultisacombinationofbothcaranddriver。Inordertomakethiswork,we’vemadesomeassumptionsabouthowtoviewtheresults:DriverandcarareconsideredtobeinseparablefromElo’spointofview。SowhenwesaythatNigelMansell’speakEloin1992was2428,wereallymean,“NigelMansell,drivingtheWilliams-RenaultFW14B,hadapeakEloof2428。”Eachsessionorraceistreatedasifitwerearound-robin1-on-1tournament。Adriverwhofinishessecondoutof15carsisviewedashavinggone13-1inthistournament,losingtothefirstplacefinisheranddefeatingtherest。EloincludeseachracethatawardsFormulaOnechampionshippoints3andtheprimaryqualifyingsessionforthatrace。Ifadriverfailstofinisharace—whetherbecauseofmechanicalfailureoracrash—wetreatthatdriverasifheorshedidn’tcompeteintherace。Thismayrewarddriverswhoareoverlybrave(orstupid)bynotpunishingthem,orcarsthatwerequickyetunreliable,butitavoidshavingtoassignblameincontroversialincidentsor,evenworse,clearcaseswhereacrashwasnotadriver’sfault。LikeseveralotherFiveThirtyEightElosystems,theaveragedriverhasanEloscorearound1500,whilenewdriversstartwith1300points。The“K-factors”inthisversionofElo—whicharemultipliersthatdeterminethesensitivityandfluctuationofadriver’srating—aremoreextremeinthebeginningofadriver’scareer。DriversstartwithaK-factorof24forapproximatelythefirstyear,thenreduceastheygainexperience。Qualifyingresultsarepredictiveofraceresults,whichmakessenseconsideringthatqualifyingresultsbothsetthestartinggridforthefollowingraceandallowfordriverstodemonstratetheirrawspeedandtalentonalevelfield。TheminimumK-factorforqualifyingsessionsis16,whiletheminimumK-factorforracesis12。DriversalwaysgainElopointsafter“defeating”anotherdriverandlosegroundafter“losing”tothem。Theoverallsystemiszero-sum,inthatthetotalnumberofpointsremainsconstantbeforeandafterasessionorrace,butgiventhateachsessionorracecanincludedriverswitharangeofK-factors,therecanbeasymmetricpointgainsandlosses。Weadjustforthisbynormalizingparticipants’scoresaftereachsession。Withoutthisnormalization,itispossibleintheshorttermbothforElodeflationtooccur—anewdriverdoespoorlyandgivesawaymorepointsthantheopponentsclaim—andEloinflationtooccur—anewdriverdoeswellandgainsmorepointsthanopponentslose。GiventherapiddriverchurninFormulaOne—especiallyduringtheearlyyearsofthesport—theseeffectswouldbemorenoticeablethaninothersportsandwouldquicklyleadtoskewedratingscalesacrossthesevendecadesofchampionships。TobuildtheFormulaOneElo,weusedthehistoricalraceresultscompiledatgithub。com/emkael/elof1。Thesewerepulledfromvarioussources:Dataforthe1950and1951seasonscamefromWikipedia,for1952and1953fromsecond-a-lap。blogspot。com,andforsubsequentseasonsfromergast。com/mrd。Dataforqualifyingraceswasalsopulledfromchicanef1。com。


最新文章

栏目排行